Well, THAT Didn’t Work….

Posted on December 28, 2014 by Bruce

(See end of first paragraph.)

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Critical Review of Lima Climate Change Output by Slate Blogger

Posted on December 15, 2014 by Bruce

from Slate’s Future Tense: <http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/12/14/lima_peru_climate_change_negotiations_one_word_undermines_the_entire_thing.html>

[My imposed emphasis in blue.]

Future Tense
THE CITIZEN’S GUIDE TO THE FUTURE
DEC. 14 2014 8:28 PM

A Single Word in the Peru Climate Negotiations Undermines the Entire Thing

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By Eric Holthaus

459963728-people-ride-bicycles-in-lima-peru-to-send-a-message-toPeople ride bicycles in Lima, Peru, to send a message to the world about the climate change on the sidelines of the U.N. COP20 and CMP10 conferences on Dec. 4, 2014.

Photo by EITAN ABRAMOVICH/AFP/Getty Images

Since 1992, the world’s leaders have been meeting annually to talk about what to do about climate change. Despite these efforts, the planet is still on pace for a worst-case scenario—actually, it’s tracking a bit above it. Thanks to exceptionally warm oceans, this year should be the hottest ever measured.

The U.N. process has so far produced oodles of protocols and plans of action. Yet emissions from tailpipes and smokestacks the world over have continued on largely unabated.

The result has been an embarrassment. After the failures of Kyoto and Copenhagen, it’s difficult to argue with a straight face that the world’s climate is better off because of the more than two decades of diplomatic doldrums that the U.N. process represents.

Still, the stakes were especially high this year in Lima, Peru. For the last two weeks, negotiators representing 196 countries gathered there to assemble the first draft of the first-ever global agreement on climate change, to be finalized late next year. As my colleague Daniel Politi reported, this year’s meeting resulted in—surprise!—a largely watered-down agreement. “They seem to have forgotten that they are here to solve a planetary emergency,” the World Wildlife Fund’s Tasneem Essop said in a mid-conference statement. It’s increasingly clear that all the global haggling has become disconnected from reality. The goal seems to be agreement for agreement’s sake, no matter if it’s effective or not.

Still, Lima wasn’t as bad as it could have been. For once, those arguing for a stronger agreement actually got the upper hand in negotiations on the final day of talks.

After an all-night session that forced an extra day, there remained a divide, generally between the U.S. and China—the same two countries who spent much of the year in secret talks before announcing a historic bilateral agreement on climate last month. A bloc of African countries and many small island states were on China’s side, while Australia, Japan, and the EU joined the United States.

So many countries objected to earlier drafts that the conference chair had no choice but to do a major rewrite to include stronger language saying that rich countries have a mandate to help buffer the “loss and damages” that climate change is already causing. China and the developing countries also wanted fewer constraints on the emissions reductions plans they’ll be required to submit for the first time next year.

Before the rewrite, the United States issued a word of caution, warning that further tinkering could undermine the international process itself. And it appears that’s probably what happened. In the final version of the text, developing countries largely got their way—including language referencing a temperature rise of just 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, a target so ambitious that it would likely require a single-minded global focus—but one key word related to international oversight of the emissions reductions plans was changed from “shall” to “may” at the request of China. Had the re-write not occurred, a leaked strategy document showed a coalition of some influential developing countries, including India, were prepared to scrap the entire agreement.

This single word undermines much of what climate campaigners were hoping 2015 would bring: a concerted effort to assemble an effective and ambitious global plan of action on a country-by-country basis. The wording of the Lima text, in combination with the fact that any global deal almost certainly won’t have legal force (because the U.S. Congress would never ratify a legally-binding climate treaty), means that whatever comes out of Paris—the site of the next climate summit, in 2015—probably won’t be a game-changer.

In one place, the final text borrowed directly from the recent U.S.-China deal, stating that all countries are required to cut emissions “in light of different national circumstances”—a nod to vast differences in capacity. There’s also a substantial 37-page annex that includes the negotiating points, line-by-line, that will comprise next year’s agreement—some of which are surprisingly bold. Just don’t plan on it meaning much. Whatever happens in Paris, it’s sure to be historic—all countries on Earth will now be committed to slowing climate change for the first time. But gone is the accountability or matching of actions to each country’s potential for change.

The U.N. process isn’t where the action is on climate anymore. Progressive cities, transformative industries, and mass protests have the best chance of providing the tipping point that’s needed. These talks are a distraction from the kind of urgent, on-the-ground work that needs to happen in order to steer the world’s economy toward a carbon-free path and prepare for the impacts of increasingly extreme weather.

Future Tense is a partnership of Slate, New America, and Arizona State University.
Eric Holthaus is a meteorologist who writes about weather and climate for Slate’s Future Tense. Follow him on Twitter.

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Dr Kenrick Leslie, CBE, ED of the CCCCC on Deeper Caribbean Climate Change Partnerships

Posted on December 12, 2014 by Bruce

from Caribbean Climate, “the region’s premier climate change blog,” published by the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre, <http://caribbeanclimateblog.com/2014/12/12/partnering-for-survival-dr-kenrick-leslie-calls-for-deeper-partnerships-to-address-climate-change-at-cop-20/>

“Partnering for Survival” – Dr Kenrick Leslie calls for deeper partnerships to address Climate Change at COP 20

Dr Kenrick Leslie, CBE, Executive Director of the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre, addressed delegates at the UNFCCC COP 20/MOP 10 on December 12, 2014. 

Dr Leslie's address focused on the Caribbean's successes in 
tackling Climate Change in spite of significant challenges 
and urged greater partnerships to address Climate Change.
Peruse Dr Leslie's "Partnering for success / Partnering for 
survival" speech and watch the Centre's Partnership Success 
Story feature video [at the URL above].

Dr Leonard Nurse (L), Chairman of the Board of Governors, CCCCC, and Carlos Fuller (R), International and Regional Liaison Officer, CCCCC, converse during COP 20DR LEONARD NURSE (L), CHAIRMAN OF THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS, CCCCC, AND CARLOS FULLER (R), INTERNATIONAL AND REGIONAL LIAISON OFFICER, CCCCC, CONVERSE DURING COP 20

In a region plagued by vulnerabilities, recognizing fragility is easy. However, addressing this fragility is not as straightforward. Heads of Government of the Caribbean Community group of Nations took the bold step in 2002 and established a regional Centre whose mandate was simple – help us to address the impacts of climate change.

In its first years the Centre was little more than a few people in a small office at the National University in Belize. Within a decade its staff has grown fourfold, it is currently managing projects totalling over 40 million United States dollars, it implemented the first set of pilot adaptation projects globally and has been recognized as a Centre of Excellence. None of this could have been possible without the partnerships we forged over the years at the national, regional and international levels.

For a small institution with no government subvention to look forward to, the Centre had to look to other ways to build its capacity and to add value to the products that it would eventually develop. But there was another caveat, the Centre did not want to become a mammoth institution. This means we had to be deliberate, we had to evolve and we had to do this in conjunction with our sister institutions and other like-minded international bodies and donors. And we did. We have learned from each other and we have expanded our knowledge base across institutions.

The Centre is not an island onto itself. This augurs well for a climate change institution, where multidimensional threats cannot be addressed by a single entity. It requires objectivity and resources, but more importantly partnerships to transform attitudes, policies and the way we conduct our affairs to confront the challenges posed by climate change, while simultaneously exploiting the opportunities presented by this phenomenon.

And if I were to be retrospective I would say that the bold decision of the Heads, the deliberateness with which we would carve out a place for a Caribbean institution on Climate Change and the timeliness of it all, forged a remarkable institution. And for those to whom much is given, much more is required. We intend to scale up our demonstration projects in energy, water and agriculture, build a lasting alliance with other partners, establish a Trust Fund to guarantee the sustainability of the Centre’s work and continue what has served us so well in the past – working with others to develop a Region that is resilient to climate change.

If one were to take a cross section of speeches that have been delivered over the past two weeks, I would imagine that most have two essential points – let us develop and let us do it in the face of one of the greatest challenges of our time to the development aspirations of our regions and an existential threat to some of the countries we call home. This is no small request by any measure but for a group of nations whose very survival demands no less, then a plea must become a commitment.

As we continue to seek ways of adapting and innovating to the impacts of climate variability and change, we encourage partnerships and inter and intra-regional linkages with development partners, technical and academic institutions, and regional entities amongst others. The Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre is a committed partner. And we encourage you to join us in this approach. Our future generations require no less.

Posted in Climate Change, Development | Tagged , | 1 Comment

NY Times: Where You From? — The Persistence of Upbringing . . . .

Posted on December 9, 2014 by Bruce

There’s an on-line, 25-question test you can take on the NY Times web site that will show where you’re from . . . . The link is also circulating on Facebook these days.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2013/12/20/sunday-review/dialect-quiz-map.html

Here’s my result — Red is how I speak; Blue is how I most do NOT speak . . . interesting that the two places my speech is LEAST LIKE are Pittsburgh (only 90 miles from Buffalo or Rochester), and Austin, Texas.

To me, one of the most interesting aspects of this speech map is that a generation or two ago I saw studies of values that people have, and how they reflect the values that they grew up with. . . Hmmm. I’m betting political analysts or hand soap marketing specialists use similar maps to design regional marketing campaigns.

Another, unnerving observation is that it has been at least 50 years since I last spent more than a week in Western New York, but this silly little 25-item test can identify my young years within 50 miles.

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Woodcock

Posted on November 28, 2014 by Bruce

Photo by one of my favorite photographers — Emily Carter Mitchell — of the Anne Arundel Bird Club (you can follow her on Facebook — also publishes stuff under the name Bella Remy), who took up birding and wildlife photography only three or four years ago — incredible eye, reflexes and technique — said this was a point-and-shoot camera shot (the best camera is the camera you’re carrying).

I could have stood in the same spot she took this shot for three hours and never even see the damn bird. . . .

bp

Bruce
bpotter

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The Ambiguous Conservation Benefits of Valuing Ecosystem Service

Posted on November 28, 2014 by Bruce

Ann Sutton of Jamaica (contact details at the bottom) called our attention on the Birds Caribbean e-mail group this article from the RESEARCH website of Cambridge University (UK) <http://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/does-it-help-conservation-to-put-a-price-on-nature>. Readers may be reminded of the parallels between this drawback of the ecosystem services approach to valuing nature, and World Bank attempts to account for natural resources in national systems of accounts in order to avoid environmental damages from Bank investments.

Does it help conservation to put a price on nature?

Assigning an economic value to the benefits which nature provides might not always promote the conservation of biodiversity, and in some cases may lead to species loss and conflict, argues a University of Cambridge researcher.

There is a risk that traditional conservation strategies oriented toward biodiversity may not be effective at protecting the economic benefits of an ecosystem, and vice-versa

Bill Adams

Putting a price on the services which a particular ecosystem provides may encourage the adoption of greener policies, but it may come at the price of biodiversity conservation. Writing today (30 October) in the journal Science, Professor Bill Adams of the University’s Department of Geography argues that assigning a quantitative value to nature does not automatically lead to the conservation of biodiversity, and may in fact contribute to species loss and conflict.

While assigning a monetary value to the benefits of an ecosystem can be an essential tool in the environmental planning process, unequal access to those benefits, particularly where there are differences in wealth and power, can lead to poor trade-offs being made, both for the ecosystem itself and those who rely on it.

“Putting a price on what nature provides is not in itself a conservation measure,” said Adams. “There is a risk that traditional conservation strategies oriented toward biodiversity may not be effective at protecting the economic benefits of an ecosystem, and vice-versa.”

For example, when stream channels in the US state of Maryland were re-engineered to provide a means of natural flood control, it ended up causing the loss of trees which had been growing next to the water and were unable to adapt to their new, drier environment.

The ways in which we depend on our natural environment are increasingly expressed as ‘ecosystem services’, or the range of benefits we get from nature for free. These benefits include the provision of food and clean water, erosion control and carbon storage. Quantifying the value of nature in this way is meant to allow policymakers to consider the potential economic and social impacts of altering a particular habitat.

This approach does sometimes lead to win-win scenarios, where the value of ecosystem services is dependent upon a high level of biodiversity. One example is in the coffee plantations of Costa Rica, where the retention of forest habitat in areas around the plantations doubled the amount of pest control of coffee berry borer beetle provided by birds, which benefitted the coffee farmers while protecting biodiversity.

However, consideration of ecosystem services when making decisions does not automatically lead to retention of biodiversity. “In many cases, trade-offs are made,” said Adams.

Several factors cause tension between biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services. One problem is that the biological and physical processes that guarantee the supply of specific ecosystem services may be different from those that support valued species. An ecosystem that is managed to deliver particular services may not support particular elements of biodiversity.

A second problem is that there are often no markets for some vital services, such as soil formation and nutrient cycling, and while payment schemes can be created to create market-like structures, the value assigned to ecosystem services depends on market prices, which are subject to change.

A third problem arises from the institutional and political processes linking economic benefits from ecosystems and human wellbeing. “Unequal access to benefits, for example where there are differences in wealth and power among stakeholders, can lead to trade-offs being made, with negative impacts for the ecosystem itself and those who rely on it,” Adams comments “It’s not enough to identify the net benefits of ecosystem services; it also matters who gets them.”

For example, in Nepal, research has shown that forests managed by the local community, rather than by the state, yielded benefits of clean water, tourism and harvested wild goods. However, these forests restricted poorer people’s access to forest-derived products, creating hardship, illegal use and impacts on other areas.

“In a world run according to economic arguments, the survival of biotic diversity will depend on its price,” said Adams. “Sometimes economics will favour conservation and sometimes it won’t. But conservationists need to plan for both outcomes.”

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The End of Beaches

Posted on November 10, 2014 by Bruce

Small Island Developing States
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OK, No More Kayaking in the Bering Sea, at least until Next Week

Posted on November 5, 2014 by Bruce

From the Weather Underground weather site: <http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2852&cm_ven=tw-jm>

Typhoon Nuri Poised to Become an Alaskan Super Storm; TD Vance Hits Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:22 PM GMT on November 05, 2014

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Typhoon Nuri is down to Category 1 strength as it steams to the northeast at 11 mph towards Alaska.Satellite loops show that Nuri has maintained a large area of heavy thunderstorms, but the eye is no longer visible, and high wind shear of 20 – 30 knots is significantly disrupting the storm. Nuri will lose its tropical characteristics on Thursday as it becomes embedded in a cold front. As the extratropical version of Nuri moves into the Bering Sea to the west of Alaska on Friday, a very powerful jet stream will interact with the storm and cause it to rapidly intensify into one of the strongest low pressure systems ever observed in the Pacific Ocean. Ex-Nuri’s central pressure is forecast to drop from around 970 mb late Thursday night to about 918 mb late Friday night. The 00Z Wednesday run of the European model predicted that ex-Nuri would bottom out near 918 mb at 03Z Saturday, about 300 miles west-northwest of the westernmost Aleutian Island, Attu. The 00Z Wednesday GFS model had the storm reaching 918 mb 300 miles north of Attu. The NWS in Anchorage is predicting that a large swath of hurricane force winds will be possible from Shemya eastward to Adak and Atka in the Aleutian Islands late Friday into Saturday, with seas building to 45 feet or higher. A storm surge of 2′ is predicted at St. Lawrence Island on Saturday morning, and over 1′ at Nome.

Nuri.A2014309.0410.2km.jpg
Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Nuri in the Pacific at 04:10 UTC November 5, 2014. At the time, Nuri was a weakening Category 2 storm with top sustained winds of 105 mph. Image credit: NASA.

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Shifting Baselines . . . . .

Posted on November 2, 2014 by Bruce

The story linked below, from the [Chesapeake] Bay Journal, is an excellent discussion of how exports of oysters from the Chesapeake to Louisiana is an example of the rapid changes that can take place (and incidentally overtake resource managers and policy makers) in marine and coastal natural resources.

It is also a telling example of shifting baselines, in which the increase in the Bay’s oyster harvest from 10’s of thousands of bushels in the 1990’s to 440,000 bushels this year is reported (by an otherwise careful journalist) as the “recovery” of the Bay’s oyster industry, when the Bay was once capable of supporting sustainable catches of many millions of bushels of oysters. Just because the patient is out of the respirator doesn’t mean s/he is healthy, or capable of surviving to a ripe old age.

http://www.bayjournal.com/article/chesapeake_oysters_being_shipped_to_louisiana_shucking_houses

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Illegal Fishing Control: Why Europe ANY FISHERIES REGION Needs a Common Software Platform

Posted on October 23, 2014 by Bruce

from the excellent IUU Fishing Blog at http://houseofocean.org/iuu-fishing-blog/ == probably not a problem in the Caribbean, eh?

AUGUST 4, 2014

Illegal Fishing Control: Why Europe Needs a Common Software Platform

Council Regulation 1005 / 2008 (the IUU Regulation) is a European Union (EU) legislative tool designed to reinforce and support pre-existing normative measures established by the international community to control illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing.

Transhipment, Central Pacific (Image Credit: underwatertimes.com)

The potential of the IUU regulation to disincentivise IUU fishing practices gravitates around

  • the indisputable power of the EU as port and market State, and
  • on the ability of the EU to implement the IUU regulation in an even and watertight manner.

These are in fact like two sides of the same coin, since loopholes in implementation leading to IUU importation windows can de factogive rise to different standards within the common trade boundary and make coordination impossible.

A recent report offers an insight into progress made in implementing the Regulation, which came into force on the 1st of January 2010.[1] The report offers a useful overview of the different degrees of investment, reorganisation and resource reallocation in each of the Member States pursuant to the requirements of the IUU Regulation.

According to the authors, the catch certification system imposed by the Regulation has placed a heavy administrative burden on Member States. Implementation has been uneven and differences in approach cannot always be attributed to differences in patterns such as seafood trade volume, financial resilience or pre-existing know-how: Whilst large importers such as Denmark and Spain have developed interactive IU tools, others (including some with considerable importation volumes) have not done so. The same is true of intelligence data gathering processes.

For example, highly sophisticated IUU tracking software and data capture systems in Spain have not been replicated (and are not supported) in other Member States. This unevenness in the implementation of the Regulation leads to inefficiencies, penalises better implementation and causes potential diversions of legitimate trade.

Increased data and know-how sharing can address other weaknesses of the IUU Regulation such as the inability of the imports system to deter the duplication of catch certificates during processing operations in 3rd countries.[2] Increased knowledge and sharing of processing methodologies and conversion data could help address this issue.

As no common IT platform exists with the capability to cross-check import volumes, sources, fishing arts, time of capture and composition, States are rendered powerless to flag suspected IUU imports in a timely fashion.

This problem became manifest earlier this year when the Spanish government decided to suspend the importation of Vietnamese swordfish over IUU concerns.[3] According to Madrid sources, an audit identified a volume of 502 metric tonnes (mt) of swordfish captured in 2012 by Vietnamese vessels (according to catch certificate data) being imported into Spain despite Vietnam having declared to the Western and Central Pacific Fisheries total capture volumes of only 372 mt for that time period. Vietnam exports swordfish to other European countries, but the capture declaration shortfall had not been identified in any other Member States.

Swordfish (xiphias gladius). Image Credit: fisherynation.comSwordfish (xiphias gladius). Image Credit: fisherynation.com

If this is alarming, the potential discrepancy between the volumes of West & Central Pacific swordfish declared for 2012 and those actually captured is even more so.

A common software audit platform would enable European Fisheries authorities to identify IUU fishing importation trends as well as to ascertain species under-declaration volumes – such IUU trade-flows could then be used as solid, objective data upon which the Commission could identify third countries for potential inclusion in the EU non-cooperating third country list.

Perhaps this could even be integrated with the public EU alert system once it is operational, so that awareness of IUU fishing trade flows and vessel data and activity could be integrated, shared and uniformly acted upon.

Footnotes:

[1] To access the full MRAG report, click here:http://ec.europa.eu/fisheries/documentation/studies/iuu-regulation-application/doc/final-report_en.pdf

[2] This weakness was also highlighted in a 2013 report published in April by Sasama and FMP Consulting. To access, click here http://sasama.info/en/pdf/reports_17.pdf)

[3] http://www.undercurrentnews.com/2014/06/30/spain-seeks-eu-wide-suspension-of-vietnamese-swordfish-imports/

Posted in Illegal Fishing | Tagged European Commission, fisheries, fisheries governance, illegal fishing, IUU, IUU fishing, IUU Regulation, overfishing, sustainability, trade measures

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