Nate Silver’s Take on Republican Senate Gains in November 2014

From the Silver “538 Blog”


Republicans Remain Slightly Favored To Take Control Of The Senate

. . . .and a reason to again support Michelle Nunn in Georgia, please . . .

We also have Republican chances slightly improved — to 75 percent from 70 percent — in Georgia, where the party has nominated David Perdue, a former CEO. This is Perdue’s first campaign, and ordinarily there’s reason to be suspicious of candidates who haven’t previously held elected office; our research shows they tend to underperform their early polling. However, this is also the first time the Democratic nominee, Michelle Nunn, has run for office. Furthermore, Purdue is running as a pragmatic, “Main Street” conservative.The bigger risk to Republicans would have been nominating an extremely conservative candidate who might have lost votes in the Atlanta suburbs.

Perdue has also pulled slightly ahead of Nunn in the polls. It’s a dubious bunch of surveys, full of partisan polls and “robopolls.” In the absence of high-quality polling, one should default toward placing more weight on the “fundamentals” of the race. In our view, those don’t favor Democrats in a midterm year. President Obama wasn’t that far from winning Georgia in 2008, but he came close because of votes from African-Americans and college students — groups that don’t turn out as reliably in the midterms.

The whole long, dismal story at

About Bruce

Work for sustainable development of small islands and the Chesapeake Bay; ex-Peace Corps (Volunteer and staff) in LA & Caribbean; cruised Caribbean on S/Y Meander for three years; like small tropical islands, French canals, Umbria, Tasmania, and NZ. Married 52 years to the late Kincey Burdett Potter (see President of the now-sunsetting Island Resources Foundation.
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